Market Plan 2012

OVERVIEW:
New margin account funded with $15,000 (Deposited $15K so I could get intraday margin on futures, but only plan to use about $10K)

Will use 33% (5,000) for active trading utilizing option strategies as follows:

Max risk per trade:
5% of portfolio of $10000 = $500 According to POS (probability of success)
Iron Condors: $500 (55-65% pos) collect around 50% width of strikes
Verticals: $500 (60-70% pos) collect at least 1/3 width of strikes
Calendars $300-400 (45% pos)
Short strangles $1000 (80% pos
Butterflies 100-200 (20-30% pos)

Generate around $30 in Theta (Time Decay)

RULES:
Manage risk
Keep positions small enough to give them time to be right so I can manage winners & let losers become winners
Keep a fairly delta neutral portfolio


Contrarian option strategies:

  • Short when underlying is at the high end of 20 day (1 month) range on 1hr chart and high end of range on 6 month daily chart
  • Short calendar or vertical on SPY/IWM/QQQ when Vol/Vix is at short term extremes according to RSI (Weekly Play)
  • Short at least 45 days out when at extremes on RSI on weekly chart


  • Long when underlying is at the low end of 20 day (1 month) range on 1hr chart and low end of range on 6 month daily chart
  • Short calendar or vertical on SPY/IWM/QQQ when Vol/Vix is at short term extremes according to RSI (Weekly Play)
  • Long at least 45 days out when at extremes on RSI on weekly chart


Futures Strategies: (working on trading plan)

  • 1 Contract only
  • When VIX at extremes according to RSI, day trade in contrarian direction